Assad’s Regime Falls: A Look at the Causes and Consequences
Over the weekend, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia as opposition forces took over the capital of Damascus, marking the end of an uprising that began in 2011. This event resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and the displacement of millions. Assad’s regime seemed to have the upper hand with military support from Iran and Russia. However, conflicts in Israel and Ukraine distracted his allies, allowing a rebel group, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (H.T.S.), to swiftly advance across Syria’s major cities.
Expert Analysis: Emile Hokayem on Syria’s Future
To delve deeper into the implications of these recent developments, I had the opportunity to speak with Emile Hokayem, a renowned expert on Middle East security. Hokayem emphasized the factionalism within both the opposition and Syria as a whole, highlighting the challenges of unifying the country post-Assad. Despite the complexity of the situation, he remains cautiously optimistic about Syria’s future, pointing out that this victory was achieved through Syrian efforts rather than external interventions. Hokayem also touched on the potential for post-Assad Syria to avoid the violent outcomes seen in other regime changes, offering a glimmer of hope for a more peaceful transition.
Role of Turkey and Geopolitical Impact
Regarding Turkey’s involvement in supporting H.T.S., Hokayem provided context, clarifying that Turkey backs the Syrian National Army rather than H.T.S. He acknowledged that the rapid advance of rebel forces towards Damascus may have caught Turkish planners off guard. However, he emphasized that the collapse of Assad’s regime was primarily due to its internal weaknesses and lack of support from key constituencies.
The Downfall of Assad’s Regime: Local Dynamics vs. Geopolitical Factors
While acknowledging the role of Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia in weakening Assad’s regime, Hokayem underscored the internal dynamics that ultimately led to its collapse. He highlighted the regime’s inability to provide economic and social stability post-victory, leading to disillusionment among its support base. Despite geopolitical influences, Hokayem emphasized the agency of Syrian actors in shaping the course of events, pointing to local conditions that played a crucial role in Assad’s downfall.
As Syria navigates this new chapter in its history, the road to stability and reconstruction remains fraught with challenges. The fall of Assad’s regime signals a significant turning point for the country and its people, with far-reaching implications for the region as a whole. By understanding the complex interplay of internal dynamics and external influences, we can begin to grasp the complexities of Syria’s path forward in the post-Assad era.
