Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Flees to Russia
Over the weekend, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia as opposition forces took over the capital of Damascus, marking the end of an uprising that began in 2011 and resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and the displacement of millions. Assad’s regime, previously supported by Iran and Russia, seemed to have the upper hand until his allies became embroiled in conflicts with Israel and Ukraine. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (H.T.S.), a rebel group formerly linked to Al Qaeda, swiftly advanced across major cities in Syria.
Analysis by Emile Hokayem
In a recent phone interview, Emile Hokayem, a respected expert on Middle East security, shared insights on the internal dynamics that led to Assad’s downfall. He expressed concerns about factionalism within Syria and the challenges of competing for power and legitimacy in a post-Assad era. Hokayem highlighted the unity among opposition forces rallying against Assad as a key factor in his regime’s collapse.
He emphasized that despite past failures in similar situations, there is room for optimism in Syria’s future. Hokayem noted that the absence of a violent end for Assad, akin to Qaddafi’s demise, could help ease tensions and prevent further bloodshed among Syria’s diverse religious groups.
Role of Turkey and Foreign Backers
Hokayem debunked the notion that Turkey orchestrated the rebel advance, pointing out that H.T.S. and other groups led the charge independently. He suggested that Turkey’s support for the Syrian National Army may have inadvertently contributed to instability in the region. Hokayem attributed the rapid collapse of Assad’s regime to internal factors, such as economic decline and loss of support from key constituencies.
While acknowledging the impact of weakened support from Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, Hokayem stressed the importance of local conditions and Syrian agency in shaping recent events. He highlighted Assad’s failure to maintain a cohesive narrative and engage with his supporters as critical factors in his regime’s downfall.
In conclusion, the fall of Assad’s regime signals a new chapter for Syria, marked by uncertainty and challenges. As the country navigates a post-Assad era, the role of external actors, internal dynamics, and the aspirations of rebel groups will shape its future trajectory.
