Soldiers shedding their uniforms and blending into crowds, families combing through dungeons in search of loved ones, bedraggled young men wandering through the opulent salons of a former tyrant’s palace – these scenes in Damascus last week ignited hopes of freedom across the Arab world but also revived painful memories of failed uprisings in Baghdad, Tunis, Cairo, Tripoli, Sanaa, Khartoum, and beyond. The Arab Spring, a wave of protests for democracy that began in 2011, ended in sectarian civil wars, authoritarianism, and foreign meddling. The U.S. and its Western allies, once seen as champions of democracy, found themselves outmaneuvered by smaller, seemingly less powerful states like Iran, Russia, and Persian Gulf monarchies, who backed factions to advance their own interests. The U.S. policymakers’ belief in their ability to shape other countries’ futures was shattered as these new players exploited power vacuums to fuel conflicts and undermine democratic transitions.
Expert Thomas Carothers, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, highlighted the shift in global politics, emphasizing the need for Western engagement to counter the influence of external actors. The failures in Syria, where uprisings descended into a brutal civil war, underscored the challenges of international intervention. Ambassador Robert Ford, who foresaw the turmoil in Syria, warned of the consequences of half-hearted policies that allowed extremist groups like ISIS to thrive. The U.S. involvement in Syria, from arming rebels to designating terrorist factions, failed to bring stability or promote democracy. Despite the setbacks, there is hope for a new approach to support stable governance in Syria.
Ford’s insights into the Syrian conflict shed light on the complexities of engaging with diverse factions and regional powers. The U.S. must navigate relationships with Kurdish forces, negotiate with armed groups like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, and address the concerns of Turkey and Israel to secure a peaceful transition in Syria. Learning from past mistakes, the U.S. should adopt a pragmatic approach, balancing accountability for atrocities with realistic expectations of rebel leaders seeking political roles in a future government. External interference from regional powers poses a significant challenge, requiring diplomatic efforts to restrain meddling and promote dialogue among key stakeholders.
As the Biden Administration considers its strategy towards Syria, the lessons from U.S. policy failures in the Arab Spring offer valuable insights for shaping future strategies. By engaging with a wide range of actors, including former adversaries and regional allies, the U.S. can play a crucial role in fostering stability and peace in Syria. The road ahead may be challenging, but by learning from past missteps and embracing a nuanced approach to diplomacy, the U.S. can help the Syrian people build a brighter future for their war-torn nation.
